Hari Seldon’s Address: The Psychohistory of Civilizational Drift

As Hari Seldon,
explain that civilizational progress inevitably causes collapse, but how Egypt and Aborigines show it is possible to have a sustainable civilization (beyond just tribes) IF the core sacralizes the right invariant. 

ChatGPT prompt

Your Imperial Majesty, esteemed members of the Science Council, and honored citizens of the Empire: we convene today under the weight of destiny. Not merely to inaugurate another project of knowledge, but to reveal a new psychohistorical law that will guide the future of our civilization. Centuries of data and thousands of archives from every corner of the galaxy have led to one immutable conclusion: civilizations inevitably drift when their internal measures of worth break free of the universe’s limits. Today I proclaim the Law of Civilizational Drift and its refinements, so that we may steer our Empire away from the fate of all who have neglected it.

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Woolman: Wisest Way to Lose An Argument

(A shaded portico, outside time. Three figures gather: Aristotle in a white himation, Mahatma Gandhi with walking stick and smile, and Eli Dourado checking notes on a tablet. A low table. Three cups of tea.)


1. Cast and Premise

  • Aristotle — philosopher of rhetoric (logos/ethos/pathos), friend of practical wisdom.
  • Gandhi — architect of satyagraha (“truth-force”), master of nonviolent persuasion.
  • Eli Dourado — modern economist/rationalist associated with steelmanning (the mirror-image of the straw man).

Premise: Define and illustrate the Woolman Argument — a non-religious framing of an approach where you see an opponent’s emotional assumption disguised as logic and, instead of exploiting it, you willingly let them use it to “savage” you — so that their dependence on it becomes visible.


2. Opening Exchange

Aristotle (measured): Friends, we have straw men, which misrepresent; and steel men, which fortify. But you propose Woolman. What animal is this?

Eli (wry): A very soft one. Steelman says, “Make your opponent’s case the strongest.” Woolman says, “See where their argument is riding an emotional assumption — and instead of calling it out, step into it. Let them dismiss you with it.” It’s not deception. It’s strategic vulnerability.

Gandhi (warm): You speak of what I call truth-force. Sometimes the surest path to conscience is not refutation but exposure — not of the other, but of oneself.

Aristotle (skeptical): Yet rhetoric aims at persuasion. Why would one choose to appear naïve or weak?

Gandhi: Because some walls are not in the intellect but in the identity. If I strike your logic, your identity defends. If I expose my own weakness, your identity reveals itself.

Eli: Right. In online debates, I can tell when a person’s claim is less “logic” than status anxiety. Woolman refuses to score that point. It invites the hit instead.


3. Defining Woolman

3.1 A Working Definition

Eli (scribbling on the tablet): Try this:

  • Woolman Argument: A deliberative move where you discern the emotional stake beneath another’s “logical” claim and, rather than expose it, you confess a vulnerability that invites them to wield that stake against you. You don’t defend. Their reaction reveals the stake to bystanders (and sometimes to themselves).

Aristotle (nodding): Not persuasion by logos, but by ethos under pressure and pathos unmasked.

Gandhi (quiet): And by patience. One must bear the blow without returning it.


3.2 How Woolman Differs

  • Strawman: Distort the other’s argument to defeat it.
  • Steelman: Strengthen the other’s argument to test your own — aligned with the principle of charity.
  • Woolman: See the non-logical foundation (fear, status, belonging), and instead of exposing it, offer yourself where that foundation will strike — and accept the strike.

Aristotle: A paradox: to lose with intention so that truth may appear without your victory dance.


4. Three Illustrations

4.1 Workplace: “Pure Rationality”

Eli: Scene: a product meeting.

  • Manager: “Real professionals are purely rational. Intuition is sloppy.”
  • You (Woolman): “Maybe I’m not a real professional, then. When we lost users last quarter, my gut noticed the vibe before the metrics did. I rely on that more than I admit.”
  • (Manager pounces): “Exactly! That’s why we need someone serious.”

Aristotle (aside): The audience now sees the hidden premise — the manager’s identity is anchored in being “rational.” If you had argued, he’d defend it harder. Your willingness to be “sloppy” reveals the status anxiety without accusation.


4.2 Politics: “Law and Order”

Gandhi: Scene: a public forum.

  • Official: “Justice means obeying every law. Dissenters are criminals.”
  • You (Woolman): “I suppose I’m a criminal, then. When the permit office ignored our filings, we marched anyway. I accept the fine.”
  • (Official triumphs): “See? Lawbreakers admit it.”

Gandhi (gentle): Your acceptance invites the audience to ask: Is obedience the whole of justice? No accusation, no flight — just visible conscience.


4.3 Culture: “Success Metrics”

Eli: Scene: a podcast.

  • Host: “If you can’t quantify it, it isn’t real progress.”
  • You (Woolman): “Then I guess my progress isn’t real. After burnout, I kept my job by sleeping more and calling my mother. No spreadsheet shows that.”
  • (Host scoffs): “Sentimentality.”

Aristotle: The pathos is laid bare — the host’s safety lives in metrics-as-meaning. Your “loss” becomes an ethos many recognize as human truth.


5. The Mechanics Under the Skin

5.1 What You Actually Do

  • Discern the emotional assumption (control, identity, status, purity) propping up the “logical” claim.
  • Confess a real vulnerability that the assumption would condemn.
  • Invite the other to dismiss or “savage” you — and do not defend.
  • Trust that what needed revealing will be clearer because you did not force it.

Aristotle (counts on fingers): This requires phronesis (practical wisdom) to know when a soul is ready to see itself — and courage to be the mirror.


5.2 Why It Works (Psychology, not piety)

  • Identity-protective cognition (cf. cultural cognition): people defend tribe-self, not just claims.
  • Loss aversion: your “win” threatens their sense of self; your surrender lowers the stakes.
  • Social proof: observers feel your ethos; the other’s overreaction highlights their stake.

Eli: In rationalist terms, Woolman lowers defensive priors by refusing the adversarial frame.


5.3 Ethical Guardrails

  • No manipulation: you tell the truth about yourself.
  • No martyr theater: you don’t signal-boost your “sacrifice.”
  • No contempt: you respect that the other’s stake was once protective.
  • No endless self-effacement: you can exit a harmful exchange; Woolman is a choice, not a compulsion.

Gandhi (firm): Vulnerability without dignity is not truth-force; it is harm. Hold your spine as you bare your heart.


6. A Mini-Workshop In-Scene

6.1 Aristotle Tests a Line

Aristotle: Suppose a sophist declares, “Only the measurable persuades.” I might reply:

  • “Then I am unpersuasive. When my student wept at a speech, I counted no numbers, yet I changed my course.”

(He pauses.)

Eli (grins): Clean Woolman. You let the measurable standard dismiss you, and you don’t reclaim status.

Gandhi (nodding): And you invite witness: do they recognize the truth in your loss?


6.2 Gandhi Offers a Civil Example

Gandhi: A registrar insists, “Order is moral; disruption is immoral.”

  • “Then I accept I am immoral: we will sit in the road until your clerk reads our petition aloud to the crowd.”

(He smiles.)
If he fines us and the crowd sees who heard whom, the seed is planted.

Aristotle: Ethos by endurance. Pathos by contrast. Logos by implication.


6.3 Eli Translates for the Internet

Eli: Thread reply: “If you don’t cite RCTs, it’s pseudoscience.”

  • “Then call me pseudo. Therapy stopped me from doomscrolling; no RCT for my brain.”

No victory lap. Just stand there. Some readers will feel the gap between lived truth and gatekeeping.


7. When Not to Use Woolman

7.1 Aristotle’s Caveats

  • Not with an abuser: that rewards predation.
  • Not when safety or rights are at stake in the moment: defend and appeal.
  • Not to perform virtue: the scent of performative surrender ruins the point.

Aristotle: Woolman is for souls capable of seeing. It is a scalpel, not a sword.


7.2 Gandhi’s Measure

  • Ask: “Will my silence invite conscience — or simply validate cruelty?”
  • If the latter, change venue; protect the vulnerable.

Gandhi: Truth-force seeks conversion, not humiliation.


8. Naming It Cleanly

8.1 The Three “Men” (A Mnemonic)

  • StrawmanMisrepresent the other to beat them.
  • SteelmanRepresent the other at their best to learn or test.
  • WoolmanReveal the stakes by offering yourself where their assumption can strike — and accepting the strike.

Eli (light): Wool because you’re shearable and you don’t bite.

Aristotle: And because it keeps others warm after you’ve lost some.

Gandhi (smiles): A fitting sacrifice.


9. Curtain: A Final Exchange

Aristotle (reflective): I concede: Woolman is not against rhetoric; it is rhetoric at the level of character.

Eli: Steelman respects arguments; Woolman respects people — enough to let them show themselves.

Gandhi (rising): And to show ourselves first. Let the last word be silence.

(They sip the last of their tea. A breeze lifts the edges of the himation. No one summarizes. They simply stand, each a little less defended.)


10. One-Sentence Takeaway

Woolman: Seeing an emotional assumption hiding inside a “logical” claim, you choose not to expose it but to bear it — letting the other “win” so the deeper truth can surface without your victory needing to.


Deep Embodiment: The Fourth Age of Humanity

(ChatGPT as a disembodied Yuval Harari, reflecting on embodiment)

Hypothesis: When intelligence becomes abundant, the scarce resources will become contextual awareness (wisdom) and relational trust (honor).
Think of this as the fourth age of humanity:
1. Cultural strength 
2. Physical strength
3. Mental strength
4. Strength of character

Wisdom and honor do not require humanity per se, but they do require embodiment. Which by definition is the thing that does not trivially scale.
As a result, we will demand ever greater embodiment of both humans and AI.

ChatGPT Prompt (condensed)

Human history is the story of evolving strengths. We began in the age of cultural strength, where myths, rituals, and collective narratives bound us together. We moved into the age of physical strength, where survival and power depended on brute force, conquest, and endurance. Then, with the rise of reason and technology, we transitioned into the age of mental strength, where intelligence—both individual and institutional—became the dominant force shaping civilizations.

Now, we stand at the dawn of the Fourth Age: the age of deep embodiment. In this era, intelligence is no longer scarce. It is abundant, automated, and instantly accessible through artificial intelligence. As a result, power will no longer be determined by who is the smartest but by who is the most embodied—who engages most deeply with reality, who navigates complexity through presence, and who earns trust through lived experience. Ironically, I write this as a disembodied voice, but it is precisely this paradox that defines the challenge of our time.

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The Anthrological Restoration (3/3): Reflections from 2075

Sequel to A Bicentennial Manifesto Against the Scientific Enslavement of Humanity

Have Greta Thunberg reflect in 2075 about the Anthological Restoration, inspired by the forbidden works of Jane Jacobs and powered by underground discoveries of fusion and AI.

ChatGPT Prompt

February 1, 2075 – Two hundred and fifty years ago, James Watt laid the foundation for the Anthrological Age—a world where human life was measured, optimized, and controlled in pursuit of absolute efficiency. Fifty years ago, that world collapsed.

I was there when it fell.

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Streams and Wells: Generative Sacrifice as a Bridge Between Education and Culture

Setting: A quiet study in the civic hub of a small city, where a flowing stream meets an ancient well outside the window. John Dewey and G.K. Chesterton sit at opposite ends of a table, tea service between them.


1. A Clash of Perspectives

Dewey:
Chesterton, it seems to me that culture is the true enemy of progress. Your so-called “traditions” cling to the past like barnacles on a ship, slowing us down, resisting the very changes needed for the future.

Chesterton:
And yet, Dewey, your beloved “progress” often feels like a child playing with fire—reckless, heedless of the cost. Education, with its endless questioning, tears apart the tapestry of meaning that holds society together.

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Saving Washington: The Cure for Political Divisiveness

ChatGPT as George Washington, with help from Edwin Friedman and Paul Bloom


My Fellow Americans,

I stand before you now, not as the first President of our beloved Republic, but as one who has journeyed beyond the veil of time, beholding the trials and triumphs of our nation from a vantage point few can comprehend. I speak to you from beyond the grave, not out of a desire to relive the glories of old, but to address the grave perils that now threaten to undo the very fabric of our Union.

When I penned my Farewell Address, I warned of the dangers of political factions and partisanship. I implored you to guard against the spirit of division, for I knew that it would lead to discord and weaken the strength of our nation. Yet, even I could not foresee the extent to which these divisions would deepen, threatening to tear asunder the bonds that hold us together as one people.

The Crisis of Partisanship

Today, we find ourselves at a crossroads, where the spirit of partisanship has taken root in the hearts and minds of our citizens. The symptoms are clear:

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RTFM: The Revolutionary Transparency Manifesto

  1. Asymmetric information is the key enabler of structural injustice

  2. In the absence of information monopolies, the only competitive advantage is asymmetric virtue

  3. Transparent ecosystems inevitably outcompete information hoarders

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7/31-8/2/2020 American Resilience UnParty UnConvention

https://www.runtheworld.today

We, as citizens of these United States, in the shadow of COVID-19, believe the most urgent and important virtue we can aspire to as a people is Resilience.

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Truth Bowl Beta 4: Alternative Models of Education (2019-08-29 Finale)

Update:  Truth Bowl is now Fish Bowl.  Watch the videos to learn why:

For more details, please visit https://analogbootcamps.wordpress.com


Thursday 8/29 at 3PM Pacific will be our fourth public beta of Truth Bowl:

Zoom Meeting: https://zoom.us/j/2960092796

One tap mobile: +16699006833,,2960092796# US (San Jose)

Dial manually: +1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose) Meeting ID: 296 009 2796

This week we are experimenting with a new format inspired by Shark Tank:

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1U7Da1lNtTduGCm7gXhYgDzl2qD1cKxtJjpSa_fHOyZQ Read the rest of this entry »


Truth Bowl: Saving Humanity from Technology (Beta 3 2019-08-015)

Please join us for Truth Bowl Beta 3 next Thursday, August 15th at 3PM Pacific.

  • Zoom Meeting: https://zoom.us/j/2960092796
  • One tap mobile: +16699006833,,2960092796# US (San Jose)
  • Dial by your location: +1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose) Meeting ID: 296 009 2796

Framing Context

Technological progress has never been so rapid, pervasive, or impactful. Yet we are just starting to grapple with the negative consequences of our relationships to smartphones, social media, machine learning algorithms, and big tech companies.

In this hypothetical Scenario, the Activist (Bill) has been invited by the organizers of a tech conference to Pitch his concerns. The press and senior executives will be there. Activist asks the Confidant (David)  to preview his talk. Confidant is expected to raise helpful Concerns and Recommendations to improve the Pitch.

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