Six Ways to Out-Think the Future

Pre-paying the “Crisis Mode Cost”

To prepare for times of danger, uncertainty, or extraordinary opportunity, we must cultivate these six habits of mind in order to win the future (#WTF) by bridging the gap between Snow’s two cultures.

Mnemonic: CriSys MoDe CoSt

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THS-IPA Example: Gerbil Warming

During our last session, Agnis asked for a practical illustration of how to apply THS-IPA game theory to transformation. I wanted to do a toy example, but he was hoping for a real-world scenario. I decide to compromise by doing a toy version of a real-world problem…

The Whos who live in the land of Seuss have a problem. Their economy consists of making Seats and Shoes from the hair of the Gerbulous Gerbil. Recently, some Whos suspect the Gerbil has been losing its hair. The Lorax claims it is because the Gerbil is overheating from being too fat, and thus needs more Exercise. Horton the Elephant doesn’t think the hair loss is real; but if it is, then it must be due to stress, which means the Gerbil needs more Rest.

Their debate is complicated by the fact that the Lorax runs the company that makes running Shoes, while Horton founded the one making Seats…

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THS-IPA: A Game-Theoretic Model of Transformation

This is my first attempt to articulate a coherent theoretical model of transformation, based on my dialogues with Prof. Agnis Stibe on Transforming Human Systems.

The Instigator-Population-Agents (IPA) model describes the dynamics of how an Instigator spreads behavior across a particular Population of Agents. While most commonly used for leaders attempting to transform a group of people, the model should also be applicable to individuals (via the society of mind interpretation), social animals, and even some computational systems.

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Retrospective Roundtable: THE GREAT DECENTRALIZATION OF 2020

Making of a Revolutionary Ruckus

April 1st, 2040 AD

By Ernest Prabhakar and Colin Keeler


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Introducing the Generalized Kegan Maturity Model (GKMM)

My whole understanding of discipleship, transformation, and myself was completely transformed by learning about Kegan’s Theory of Adult Development. It gave me a unified framework for thinking about personal, spiritual, and relational growth.

The core premise is that a) we define our identity by distinguishing what we “are” from what we “have”, and b) maturing is redefining something we “were” into something we merely “have.”

However, as I have been applying the theory to my self, parenting, and coaching practice, I realized that I might be able to extend it to be both simpler and more comprehensive.  In particular, by marrying it with General Systems Theory (plus a dash of General Relativity, with a hint of Internal Family Systems), I find it useful for analyzing not just human, but also natural and computational systems!

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7/31-8/2/2020 American Resilience UnParty UnConvention

We, as citizens of these United States, in the shadow of COVID-19, believe the most urgent and important virtue we can aspire to as a people is Resilience.

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MINFIG: Strawman, Steelman, Legoman

Most of you have heard the term “straw man” for an intentionally weak argument.   I only recently discovered that the tern “steel man” has become fashionable for the opposite (we’ve also referred to it as “strongman” or “brick man”): restating your opponent’s argument in the strongest possible terms.
Building on that, I propose the term  “legoman” for when we explicitly show exactly how the argument is put together, to make it easier for our interlocutors to deconstruct our reasoning and reconstruct alternatives.  This is what I call ‘pre-future’ thinking: we don’t claim to have all the answers, but we must present our best current understanding in a way that helps our community evolve better understandings in the future.  This is what I see as the heart of the scientific method, and what I am hoping to transplant into the humanities!
That said, the gendering of the term is starting to grate on me.  As an alternative, I have started using the term MINFIG: Maximally Informative Narrative For Inspiring Generativity.

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Truth Bowl Beta 4: Alternative Models of Education (2019-08-29 Finale)

Update:  Truth Bowl is now Fish Bowl.  Watch the videos to learn why:

For more details, please visit

Thursday 8/29 at 3PM Pacific will be our fourth public beta of Truth Bowl:

Zoom Meeting:

One tap mobile: +16699006833,,2960092796# US (San Jose)

Dial manually: +1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose) Meeting ID: 296 009 2796

This week we are experimenting with a new format inspired by Shark Tank: Read the rest of this entry »

Truth Bowl: Saving Humanity from Technology (Beta 3 2019-08-015)

Please join us for Truth Bowl Beta 3 next Thursday, August 15th at 3PM Pacific.

  • Zoom Meeting:
  • One tap mobile: +16699006833,,2960092796# US (San Jose)
  • Dial by your location: +1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose) Meeting ID: 296 009 2796

Framing Context

Technological progress has never been so rapid, pervasive, or impactful. Yet we are just starting to grapple with the negative consequences of our relationships to smartphones, social media, machine learning algorithms, and big tech companies.

In this hypothetical Scenario, the Activist (Bill) has been invited by the organizers of a tech conference to Pitch his concerns. The press and senior executives will be there. Activist asks the Confidant (David)  to preview his talk. Confidant is expected to raise helpful Concerns and Recommendations to improve the Pitch.

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Truth Bowl 2019-08-02 How to Fix Education (Beta 2)

For our second “Truth Bowl Beta” we are pivoting away from a panel discussion towards more of a back-and-forth debate — but with a twist! Rather than judging the two Panelists (“Pitcher” and “Catcher”), the audience (“Fielders”) primarily focus on capturing and rating the most useful Insights that arise during the Bowl using
with the code #T361. As before, the Gospodar acts as moderator and timekeeper.

The Challenge Question will be something like “What single change would ensure education better promotes societal flourishing?” There are three phases: Pitch, Counter, and Reflect.

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