Shortening the "Long Tail" of politics
The Long Tail is a much-discussed phenomena in
marketing and technology circles; one example is how Amazon makes more money on the million non-best-sellers
its able to carry than it does on the top 100,000 you'd find at a corner
bookstore. To put it actionably, rather than merely trying to monetize the most
popular items, create an infrastructure that allows you to cost-effectively
monetize the entire "tail" of the
distribution.
Thus, I was fascinated to find an article (hat tip to Weintraub) by Arnold Kling applying "Long Tail" thinking to politics:
The Long Tail is not the political center. It is not a third party waiting to form. It is not a coalition. It is not a "silent majority" of either the right or left. It is simply every variety of political belief that does not fit within the two major parties. If we had a parliamentary system with proportional representation, the Long Tail would consist of many splinter parties, including some parties that are ethnocentric, a variety of Greens, a variety of libertarians, single-issue activists, and parties which are outside of today's classifications. The Long Tail is a motley assortment of political misfits, wing nuts, and sober independents
He then proceeds to discuss a parliamentary-style system called "virtual federalism", which is basically proportional representation (PR). I have mixed feelings about PR (which is why I propose a mixed alternative :-), but that's not my biggest concern. Right now, I believe our current parties are not the 'head' of the long tail, but rather two-sigma out from the normal distribution!
Ultimately, I believe we're in for a seismic political shakeup which will result into two parties: a center-right 'radical center' and a center-left 'sensible-center.' The former may be called Republican, and the latter Democrat, or they might be completely new. Regardless, the situation now is extremely unstable, and eventually something will have to rationalize it.
Thus, I was fascinated to find an article (hat tip to Weintraub) by Arnold Kling applying "Long Tail" thinking to politics:
The Long Tail is not the political center. It is not a third party waiting to form. It is not a coalition. It is not a "silent majority" of either the right or left. It is simply every variety of political belief that does not fit within the two major parties. If we had a parliamentary system with proportional representation, the Long Tail would consist of many splinter parties, including some parties that are ethnocentric, a variety of Greens, a variety of libertarians, single-issue activists, and parties which are outside of today's classifications. The Long Tail is a motley assortment of political misfits, wing nuts, and sober independents
He then proceeds to discuss a parliamentary-style system called "virtual federalism", which is basically proportional representation (PR). I have mixed feelings about PR (which is why I propose a mixed alternative :-), but that's not my biggest concern. Right now, I believe our current parties are not the 'head' of the long tail, but rather two-sigma out from the normal distribution!
Ultimately, I believe we're in for a seismic political shakeup which will result into two parties: a center-right 'radical center' and a center-left 'sensible-center.' The former may be called Republican, and the latter Democrat, or they might be completely new. Regardless, the situation now is extremely unstable, and eventually something will have to rationalize it.
Posted: Tue - August 23, 2005 at 06:38 PM
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Published On: Nov 01, 2006 04:11 PM
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Published On: Nov 01, 2006 04:11 PM